Bettor's Edge #93: Will Logic Return to Race-Playing This Weekend?

Is your head still spinning from the seemingly impossible results of last weekend’s races? Mine, too, but that won’t prevent me for a suggesting a $3.20 pick-5 play tomorrow at Woodbine.

But first a quick look back at that crazy week: We rarely see a pick-5 carryover at Woodbine, but last week we saw TWO: one on Friday for $90K and another on Saturday for $91K. Hitting the jackpot pick-6 by having the only correct 20-cent ticket isn’t easy. But TWO pick-6 pools were scooped: one on Friday for $13,021 and another on Sunday for $10,325. And don’t tell me your jaw didn’t drop at the longshot stakes double scored Saturday by jockey Fraser Aebly. His horses paid $57.70 and $99.20. The $1 Aebly double paid $536.

Most of us were licking our wounds, but congrats if you were among the few who nailed a biggie or two.

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I’m sure I don’t have to comment on the results of the budget pick-5 recommended in last week’s Bettor’s Edge. But, then again, the ticket only cost you the price of a Big Arch sandwich at McDonald’s—and you weren’t in the mood for a Big Arch anyway, were you?

At the heart of boxcar results on Saturdays have been the baby races. Of 11 races for two-year-olds the past three Saturdays, only three favourites won. Get a look at what the other winners paid: $58.40, $11.80, $16.90, $25.60, $20.40, $13.80, $16.70 and $16.70.

Taking “all” horses in 20-cent pick-3 wheels may be the way to go. It’s been a challenge to win a pick-5 even by spending hundreds of dollars, but a recommended $19.20 ticket four weeks ago DID come in, paying $1,918, so we’re not about to stop trying and, as mentioned earlier, I’m going to suggest a $3.20 ticket in case you don’t want to spend $32 on a ticket I originally came up with.

Race 2, $25,000 claimer: #8 Jamiesta (6-1) is dropping into a claiming race after racing almost exclusively in STARTER optional claiming races. I love that drop. He also has 5 in-the-money finishes in 6 races at the distance. But #7 Forests Buzz (3-1) is also dropping in class from allowance optional claiming races, #4 (8-1) is going to try to take his speed the whole trip and #2 (2-1) and #5 (4-1) have high speed figures, not to mention #5 has 7 in-the-money finishes in 8 races at the distance. Can you say tricky?
Race 3, turf route: This is my key race. #5 Alley Oop Johnny (2-1), has the quickest closing fraction of :29 1/5 in his most recent turf race. A teeny concern is that he hasn’t raced since August BUT the trainer is 67 per cent off a lengthy layoff and is 62 per cent wins in turf route races.
Race 4, maiden baby optional claiming race: The contenders are class droppers and lowest added up numbers: #2 (6-1), #7 (4-1) and #9 (5-1). Watching a race replay also points to #10 (3-1) who closed a lot of ground in a previous race in which he was back of the pack early.
Race 5, maiden baby optional claiming race: #2 (3-1) has lowest added up number of 3 and finished second but had a favourable trip because of the track bias. #7 (12-1) comes from the same race where she finished third after pulling back and pulling out for a drive to the wire. Did she bleed during that attempted drive? She adds Lasix. Uh-oh. #8 (8-1) showed early speed on the rail in the same race but may have been compromised by the outside bias. #9 (8-1) hot jock Fraser Aebly is riding hot trainer Mark Casse’s first time starter.
Race 6, maiden allowance for babies: #2 Wellness (9-5) has the lowest added up numbers and #3 Miss Demanding (12-1) has a big pace figure of 106, suggesting she may conserve that energy for a late move instead of vying for the lead.

Here’s your $32 pick-5 wheel for 20-cents: 2,4,5,7,8/5/2,7,9,10/2,7,8,9/2,3 (5 x 1 x 4 x 4 x 2 = 160 divided by 5 = $32). For a $3.20 fun shot, take only #7 and #8 in race 2 and key #7 in race 5 (2 x 1 x 4 x 1 x 2 = 16 divided by 5 = $3.20).

May the horse be with you. Or for you. Or whatever. Just two weeks to Horseplayer Christmas (Breeders’ Cup)!

~ by Ivan Bigg