Thankfully, only two races for two-year-olds are part of the early pick-5 tomorrow at Woodbine. Regular readers know that baby races have been our nemesis (see “Last Week’s Columns” below). So this pick-5 is finally one to believe in — whether you spend $4.80 or $38.40, both of which tickets are listed below.
- RACE 2, $40K Maiden optional claimer: #1 Cloud Rider (5-2) is making the big class drop from MSW, #2 Reverse Psychology (3-1) has the lowest added-up number of 5 and #3 Blue Spirit (6-1) has added-up number of 8 and is dropping from one try at the higher MSW class. That up-and-down move is a good rule. Hard to ignore #6 Zipfire (4-1) featuring the 24 per cent powerhouse team of trainer Mark Casse and jockey Patrick Husbands.
- RACE 3, 7-furlong maiden allowance: Love 7-furlong races! #7 Stolen Velour (10-1) has a 74 E speed fig at 7-furlongs. First-time starter #4 Earheart (8-5) is the best bet on the card for DRF’s main man Ron Gierkink.
- RACE 4, 7-furlong maiden allowance for two-year-olds: Here’s your key — #6 Drexel Hill (9-5) — who has an 80 speed figure at 7 furlongs and added-up numbers of 7.
- RACE 5, $40K Maiden optional claimer: Yes, these are two-year-olds, but three stand out: #6 Silent Strike (4-1) is entering from a fifth-place finish in a stakes race, #7 Bonita Mundo (5-1) is dropping from MSW races and #3 Zippy Gamble (3-1) has a low added-up number of 7.
- RACE 6, allowance optional claimer: Speed figures in this race are competitive, but #6 Miss Vyvyanne (7-2) is dropping speed, a huge betting angle, and will have to be caught. Will that happen? And if she is caught, who will do it? This is a very competitive bunch. Taking all eight horses will give you the luxury — if you’re still alive in the pick-5 — to sit back and cheer for the longest shot in the field to make it a very happy day.
So here is the suggested 20-cent pick-5 wheel for $4.80: 1,2,3,6/4,7/6/3,6,7/6 (4 X 2 X 1 X 3 X 1 = 24 divided by 5 = $4.80). And, for the $38.40 ticket, take all eight horses in the last leg.
Last week’s columns including the money-making Breeders’ Cup
Do I even want to talk about Bettor’s Edge #95? Let’s delete it. The suggested $16 pick-5 wheel in Woodbine races 2 to 6 last Saturday was a total bust, what with four baby races that defied analysis. The winners had odds of 16-1, 11-1, 9-1 and 3-1. That’s been par for baby races this year. You pretty much need to play “all” in races for two-year-olds. No wonder the 20-cent pick-5 with those four baby races paid a gargantuan $10,271.
But, hey, Breeders’ Cup races that ran opposite Woodbine races more than made up for any loss you might have suffered at Woodbine. Rules worked very well, thank you, as they have in previous Breeders’ Cups.
Bang, right off the hop you would have collected $102 by betting a $1 exactor box (6-8) on the top two horses in the 7-furlong specialist race, the Fillies & Mares Sprint. (See the Breeders’ Cup column here.)
And look at what happened if you had simply bet $1 pick-3 wheels in all nine races, races 4 to 12, using the rule horses set out in my column, keying overwhelming favourites #2 in race 6 and #11 in race 7:
Races 4,5,6: 4 horses x 3 horses x 1 horse = $12 . . . LOSE
Races 5 6 7: 3 x 1 x 1 = $3 . . . LOSE
Races 6 7 8: 1 x 1 x 7 = $7 . . . WIN $42
Races 7 8 9: 1 x 7 x 2 = $14 . . . WIN $180
Races 8 9 10: 7 x 2 x 3 = $42 . . . WIN $400
Races 9 10 11: 2 x 3 x 5 = $30 . . . WIN $600
Races 10 11 12: 3 x 5 x 3 = $45 . . . LOSE
Total winnings $1,222
Total outlay $153
PROFIT: $1,069
Not bad, eh? And only one of the five legs (race 5) was missed in the pick-5 that paid — get this–$52K. Next year!
~ by Ivan Bigg
