Bettor’s Edge Special: Another Prince of Wales Superfecta Success?

So the pressure is on. When I suggested writing a special column on tomorrow’s Prince of Wales Stakes, I almost wished I were turned down. That’s because I’ve been riding high on the result of last year’s Prince of Wales column in which the five horses I suggested boxing in the superfecta paid $2,020 for a $1 ticket.

Yeah, like I’m going to do that again. It’s like being the last batter in a baseball game in which the batter’s team is down three runs and the batter hits a grand slam and the team wins. So the next time that batter faces a similar situation, fans are half-expecting him to do it again.

Ain’t gonna happen.

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The complexion of this year’s 10-horse field is vastly different from last year’s 11-horse field. Last year, I had expected horses who had trip problems in the King’s Plate to fare better in the Prince of Wales — which they did. And the track was sloppy. I say that because perhaps it played more like a synthetic track — which horses had come from — than a dry dirt track which is likely to be the case at Fort Erie Tuesday afternoon.

One can’t minimize how big an impact the track consistency makes to some horses, eight of which have never raced on a dirt track. The history of horses transitioning from the synthetic Queen’s Plate to the dirt Prince of Wales is replete with highly-favoured horses finishing up the track.

With a healthy dose of skepticism, I must admit, I’ll suggest five horses for another superfecta box (which you can play for $24) that considers (1) the in-the-money finishes for each horse since that’s a top rule for ferreting out prime candidates in stakes races (2) horses that have good workout times on dirt tracks, whether that’s Woodbine’s training track or Fort Erie’s track and (3) dirt-racing experience:

#4 Passioned (10-1): The only horse with dirt-track experience, with 4 of 8 in-the-money finishes. Likely shipped to Fort Erie from Laurel because connections know Passioned will be facing a field with no dirt racing experience.
#5 Midnight Mascot (5-2): His 9 out of 10 in-the-money finishes indicates a steadiness in performances that should put him in the mix.
#7 Bedard (10-1): Was clocked in a very quick time of :46.40 on Woodbine’s dirt training track and has two other excellent dirt works
#9 Pierre (4-1): Has 4 of 5 in-the-money finishes but his 5-furlong workout on Fort Erie’s track was a pedestrian 1:04.20. Just a maintenance work?
#10 Essex Serpent (8-1): Has 3 for 4 in-the-money finishes and his 119 pace figure in the King’s Plate when he took the early lead—and another race showing his ability to come from off the pace—indicates he may save that early King’s Plate effort for a late bid.

#1 Airosa also piqued some interest. My degree of confidence in those picks? Honestly, very low because there’s no rule for predicting how a horse will perform on a foreign surface. Maybe #4 Passioned with lots of dirt experience will simply put them all to shame.

Proceed with caution. But I do wish you well for giving this middle leg of the Canadian Triple Crown a shot.