How can I be of use to you beyond offering mere opinions on Sunday’s Queen’s Plate card? After all, opinions will be flying at you from all directions and, let’s face it, opinions are wrong more often than they’re right. So my analysis of those races is based on rules, and what are the “rules” for a specific race condition? Not liking a horse is irrelevant; if a horse fits a “rule,” that horse is playable.
Just as a teaser: The Queen’s Plate is the same distance — 1 ¼-miles — as the Kentucky Derby, so what betting rule comes out of the Kentucky Derby that you can apply to the Queen’s Plate? Read on.
Generally, rules work best in maiden races and turf route races — and, lucky us, there are a bunch of them on the 13-race card. Personally, maiden and turf route races give me the most betting success. Okay, let’s apply the rules race by race, starting with the million-dollar stakes race that’s running for the 163rd time:
THE QUEEN’S PLATE: Race 10, Post time: 5:42 ET
Rule: Which of the 11 horses in the Queen’s Plate has closed the fastest in a 1 1/8-mile race? (That’s the time between 6f and the end of the race.) For background, note that in the Kentucky Derby Mo Donegal had the best closing fraction. He finished fifth, losing by less than three lengths, but that was after an awkward start, racing near the back of the pack and swinging 10-wide to make a late bid. Of course, he then went on to win the Belmont Stakes.
So what horse in the Queen’s Plate has the best closing fraction? It’s #1 Hall of Dreams. If that Mark Casse trainee runs back to his maiden victory in June, he should win the Plate. He came home in that race in 36 1/5 seconds, a faster closing time than any other horse in the Queen’s Plate field. But also keep these three things in mind: his stablemate, Sir for Sure, beat him in the Plate Trial; he has the tricky post position #1; and we don’t know how good the filly #8 Moira is. Her closing time in her 10-length victory in the Oaks was 37 3/5 seconds — slower than Hall of Dreams’ time — but she was under no pressure to go faster. But the rule says Hall of Dreams.
Wondering how to compute closing fractions in route races which are a must for turf races? See The Bettor’s Edge #8 here.
Okay, now what rules apply to the other races on Sunday’s card? Remember, there are 20-cent pick-5s starting in races 2, 6 and 9 and two pick-4s that start in races 4 and 10. Here’s a possible 20-cent pick-4 ticket starting with the race 10 Queen’s Plate: 1,8/ALL/2,3,8,11/10. Cost $16.
Race 1: Maiden 5f turf
The obvious rule horse is #7 Housebuilder. Add up where he finished last time (2nd) and his position at the first call of his previous race (1st) and you have 3. Very low. Looking at trainer stats, none jumps off the page. Next, what horse has been working 5f? #4 Sensing Holiday. And finally, which of the first-time starters has the best debut-sire stat? #5 Green Amazon with a 16 per cent debut sire, Jimmy Creed. Suggested play: Wheel those two horses with “all” underneath Housebuilder in 20-cent superfectas.
Race 2: Maiden turf route (1 1/16-mile)
Love this condition. Calculate turf fractions (how quickly horses close from 6f to the end of the race), #2 Grey Society (8-1) and #3 Secretaryofthenile (5-2) both have 30-second closing fractions, the best in the field. An exactor play? Unknown with no turf route fractions to go by is #7 Curlin Candy. Use those three in the first leg of your pick-5.
Race 3: Stakes sprint (6 ½) for fillies and mares
I have to confess to not liking stakes races in general. The best horse on paper should win — which offers no value — and upsets are hard to predict. For possible upsetters, I look at in-the-money finishes. #1 Hard Edge has finished in the money in all eight of her starts but is the longest shot in the race. Basic handicapping shows #4 Amalfi Coast could wire the field, given her higher-than-usual pace figure last time when she was beaten by #3 Hazelbrook. Go three-deep in your exotics.
Race 4: Maiden turf route
Love it. #10 Guard of Honor has low added-up numbers of four if you draw a line through the last race which was out of his wheelhouse (Plate Trial). In turf fractions, #3 Mr Nobility is best with 29 3/5-seconds in his first lifetime start. #5 Opus North is worth looking at with a 30-second finish and the highest Turf Tomlinson of 405. #1 Gaston was wide throughout in his first turf start — yet had a decent fraction of 30 3/5 and is being ridden by the leading rider, Kazushi Kimura. All four of these merit consideration for the first leg of your pick-4.
Race 5: Claiming turf route
The two horses with the fastest closing fractions are #5 Selfmade and #12 Hyperfocus. Give the edge to Hyperfocus who should be right there with a clean trip.
Race 6: 7f maiden turf allowance
The 7-furlong aspect is critical. The rule here is to look for horses that have the fastest 7f or 7 1/2f speed figures. Since there are none, let’s look at the maiden rules. #1 Sooner Luner has the lowest added-up numbers (five). #5 Venti is next with eight. Examining the first-time starters, #6 Sing Dixie has the quickest 5f workout of :59.2; next is #12 Curlin’s Ghost with :59.8, followed by #9 Baby Voss with 1:00.2. Breeding-wise, two horses are sired by Mendelsohn who is an excellent 22% debut sire this year (#6 Sing Dixie and #10 Chamber Music — who has top jockey/trainer Kazushi Kimura/Mark Casse). If we take it one step further, #12 Curlin’s Ghost has the best Tomlinson turf rating of 404. An obvious play is a six-horse 20-cent superfecta box of 1-5-6-9-10-12 at a cost of $72.
Race 7: Starter-optional claimer turf route at 1 3/8-mile
The main rule is to look for horses that have won or done best at this specialty 1 3/8-mile distance. #6 Theregoesjojo jumps off the page because he has finished first and second and none of the other horses have finished first, second or third. It doesn’t hurt that the leading jockey will be in the saddle.
Race 8: Stakes turf route
Best in-the-money finishes: #2 Filo Di Arianno (6 of 8) and #4 Haddassah (7 of 9). The classiest horses are #2, #3 Shirl’s Speight and #7 March to the Arch.
Race 9: Stakes turf route
A very competitive field. The closing fractions edge go to #6 Flirting Bridge that hails from Ireland and #7 Keyflower who came from France last year and had good numbers earlier this year at Santa Anita.
Race 11: Maiden turf sprint
First-time starters #2 Techie and #4 So Brenna have good 5f workouts. Most other horses are droppers into a claimer from maiden special weight races. Looks like an “all” leg in pick-3, pick-4 and pick-5 wagers.
Race 12: Optional claiming turf route
The top program selections, #2, 3, 8 and 11 are difficult to separate, with close turf fractions.
Race 13: Maiden turf sprint
#10 Creemore appears to fit the classic “dropping speed” rule. Showed early pace (98 in the Equibase program) — the highest of any horse in the field — and is dropping from $40,000 to $15,000. And doesn’t Emma-Jayne Wilson have a knack for winning the last race on a card? First-time starter #1 Fragola has quick 5f works, Also, consider for your Super Hi 5 #3, 4, 5, 6, 11.
Hit ‘em hard and hit ‘em often!
