I shouldn’t have to tell you that betting rules rule big time in Breeders’ Cup races. Nowhere was this more apparent than in last year’s Breeders’ Cup column here where a 60-cent pick-5 wheel of rule horses costing you $2.40 (1 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 1) paid $152. Did you play it? The betting group I co-host at Assiniboia Downs spent $40 on a $10 pick-4 wheel of four of those legs and collected $1,300.
Betting rules work so well in Breeders’ Cup races because we’re dealing with classy horses who race pretty much true to form.
Here’s a warning, though. The first half of the nine Breeders’ Cup races tomorrow are very playable, but the second half could have you crying “uncle.” The BC Classic, race 8, is the dividing point. In fact, I think race 10, the 6-furlong BC Sprint in the second half of the card, will likely be the most exciting race on the card, with four horses seemingly hell bent to get the lead in the 11-horse field. What horse will pick up the pieces?
Last year’s early pick-5 cost you $2.40 to nail; this time, it will cost you $16.80 (4 x 1 x 1 x 1 x 7). Hey, but it’s likely to pay more!
- Race 4, 7f Filly and Mare Sprint: The rule, of course, is to play the horses who have the highest 7-furlong speed figures somewhere in their past performances. #6 Society (3-1) has 112 (and also is six-for-seven in the money at the distance), longshot #8 Soul of an Angel (12-1) has 109, #4 Vahva (4-1) has 107 (and is eight-for-eight in the money) and morning line favourite #9 Ways and Means has 103 but these are wins and she might have gone faster. A 20-cent superfecta box of 4,6,8,9 will cost you $4.80.
- Race 5, 5f Turf Sprint: Who has highest pace and speed figures and who has the best record of in-the-money finishes? Morning-line favourite #9 Cogburn jumps off the page, but 5-furlong sprints generally can’t be trusted (a 30-1 horse won this race at Del Mar in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup). Another rule horse is #5 Ag Bullet (10-1) who is cutting back to a sprint after showing blazing speed in a route. An unknown from Europe with 6 of 7 finishes in-the-money at the distance is #12 Bradsell (7-2). Other horses to add if you’re so inclined are those with the most in-the-money finishes at 5 furlongs.
- Race 6, Distaff: The best bet on the card — regarded as queen of this year’s Breeders’ Cup—is #2 Thorpedo Anna. Nine-for-nine in the money, three wins in three tries at the 1 1/8-mile distance. Bet her in your exotics wagering and you’ll pick up your friends in a limo to party! The only possible upsetters seem to be #9 Awesome Result (4-1), a Japanese filly who has seven wins in seven starts, but I was unsettled by DRF clocker Mike Welsch’s comments that she seemed to be “under pressure” during her workout — and #6 Raging Sea is six-for-seven in the money at the distance, including five wins.
- Race 7, Turf: Another apparent standout: #11 Rebel’s Romance is 11-for-13 AT THE DISTANCE of 1 ½-miles. That’s the rule. Who has done best at this distance? A weak second (two-for-two) is #6 Far Bridge (6-1).
- Race 8, Classic: I need to go seven horses deep because there are influences coming from all directions and just adding up in-the-money finishes isn’t offering a lot of clarity. Morning line favourite #3 City of Troy (5-2) is trying dirt for the first time while DRF clocker Welsch keeps saying the horse’s body action is best suited to the turf, not dirt. Uh-oh. #1 Forever Young (6-1) is reputed to be the top horse of the 19 horses shipped from Japan. #2 Highland Falls (20-1) is nine-for-nine in the money. #7 Ushba Tesoro (12-1) is being praised by the clocker as “making a good impression” and flying “under the radar.” #9 Fierceness (3-1) just won the Travers and Jim Dandy major stakes at Saratoga, although his Kentucky Derby effort was a clunker. #11 Sierra Leone (12-1) was second to Fierceness and has been working well. Finally, #14 Next (9-1) does nothing but win. Get out the darts!
So here’s my 60-cent pick-5 wheel costing $16.80: 4,6,8,9/9/2/6/1,2,3,7,9,11,14. Of course, you may add other horses to the singled legs which will multiply your cost.
- Race 9, Filly and Mare Turf: Do you know who has the quickest closing fraction? Queen’s Plate winner Moira. She’ll have to get by a seven-for-seven specialist at the 1 3/8-mile distance though, #4 War Like Goddess (5-2).
- Race 10, Sprint: There’s really no rule other than to look at pace and speed figures and predict the race shape. I’m predicting the four speedballs wear each other out and #4 Nakatomi (6-1) and the Japanese horse and world traveller #9 Remake (8-1) emerge to trounce them all. I’m adding one speedball to the mix, #8 Straight No Chaser (5-1) because, according to clocker Welsch, he “looked good” and gave his rider “all he could handle.”
- Race 11, Mile: #6 Notable Speech (7-2) looked “strong” in his track appearances, said clocker Welsch, and also has the rule of racing for the highest purses in Europe — up to $874K, but #7 Porta Fortuna (4-1) is close behind and two North Americans have raced for $1.2 million purses: #12 Carl Spackler (6-1) and #8 More Than Looks. In addition, the Japanese horse #3 Geoglyph (20-1) is another “under the radar” horse for clocker Welsch.
- Race 12, Dirt Mile: #14 Skippylongstocking (4-1) with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard should go gate-to-wire, given his high pace and speed numbers, but the outside post is a bit of a concern. What about the inside horse, then, #1 Saudi Crown (5-1) who also has good figures? And what about #8 Post Time (12-1) who is 13-for-13 in the money?
Whew! Lots of thoughts in multiple directions. They might all be right. They all could be wrong. It IS, after all, the Breeders’ Cup. I see pick-3s as a better possibility than winning a pick-4, pick-5 or certainly the pick-6. And taking flyers on superfecta wheels which have only a 20-cent base could result in four- or five-figure payoffs. If nothing else, it appears to be a highly exciting card. Good luck!
