Handicapping Presented by bet365: Bet the 'Now' Horse, Not the 'Then' Horse

The Championship season officially gets underway at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale, Florida on Saturday, December 23 with the first of many graded stakes races, the Mr. Prospector (G3), a seven-furlong sprint for three-year-olds and upward. The $125,000 race is the 10th on a pre-Christmas card that also includes the popular Tropical Park Derby and Tropical Park Oaks. The Mr. Prospector is also part of a mandatory Rainbow 6 Jackpot payout.

Most bettors looking to play the Mr. Prospector will be lured to last year’s winner, SIBELIUS, who then strutted his stuff halfway around the world in Dubai where he won the $2 million Golden Shaheen (G1) this past March.

That was then. Now, five-year-old Sibelius is seeking a return to that great form as he comes off a 10-week break for Saturday’s race following a short stint in the summer and fall that saw him race well below his best efforts.

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Current form

Heading into last year’s Mr. Prospector Stakes. Sibelius, trained by Jeremiah O’Dwyer, was coming off strong showings in a number of stakes races including a victory in the Lite the Fuse Stakes at Pimlico and a close second-place finish in the Bet On Sunshine Stakes at Churchill Downs. He was posting Beyer Speed Figures in the high 90s and low triple digits and his Mr. Prospector win began a three-race winning streak that culminated in Dubai.

He returned to racing in June of this year and finished fourth in the Artistides Stakes at Churchill and seventh in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes at Del Mar in California. After a short layoff, Sibelius came back in the Phoenix Stakes (G2) at Keeneland and faded to fifth. His three races following his trip to Dubai saw him post Beyer Figures of 83, 86 and 87.

Sibelius, who will start from the outside post nine, is being reunited with his favourite jockey from earlier this year, Junior Alvarado.

The question remains, however: is Sibelius ready to to re-discover his very best form at this point?

Finding a ‘now’ horse

The Mr. Prospector field is made up of a variety of runners, some of which are older horses seeking a return to better form, and some three-year-olds who will try to upset their elders. Two of these sophomores, #1 GREAT NAVIGATOR and #7 GILMORE, are very interesting wagering alternatives with very different running styles.

Great Navigator improved rapidly this summer in his home state of New Jersey for trainer Ed Owens Jr. He then tested one of the top horses of the last two years, Cody’s Wish, in the Vosburgh Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct on October 1 and finished a credible third with a 90 Beyer Figure. This is a lightly-raced colt who has been training steadily at Gulfstream since November and he might just be good enough to sneak a victory. His morning line odds of 3-to-1 are a bit lower than what I envision for him being a value wager, so 4-to-1 or higher makes him more appealing.

Gilmore, 4-to-1 in the morning line odds, was Grade 1-placed in the summer when third in the Woody Stephens Stakes at this seven-furlong distance at Belmont Park. The Brendan Walsh trainee has been an underachiever to this point but he has shown flashes of brilliance (note the 104 Beyer Figure from that Woody Stephens outing). This is Gilmore’s first race since September and he has posted a number of bullet workouts at Palm Meadows training centre.

It will be interesting to see how the public views the chances of Sibelius. He is listed at 5-to-2 in the morning line and anything higher than that would make him enticing as far as value. I have included him in the exacta wager.

How to play the Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park on December 23, presented by bet365:

$2 Exacta Partial Wheel: 1, 7 /1, 5, 7
$10 win 7

As you can see, I have left the favourite, Sibelius, out of the exacta, but if you like the favourite to be in the mix, you can include him.

Good luck with your wagers!