By now, horse racing fans and avid bettors and handicappers know that Woodbine’s leading trainer Mark Casse has a powerful three-horse hand for the 165th King’s Plate on Friday. In a field of 12 (Bedard will be scratched) that is very light on achievements, the Casse boys are all stakes winners; just one other entrant in the Plate has won a stake and that is No More Options.
Heck, there are two maidens in the field this year: Rafaroo, Thor’s Cause, and one horse who has never tried a route distance and was a recent claim, that being Roar of the Crowd.
My Boy Prince has been favoured for this year’s Plate since he won the Cup & Saucer Stakes last fall and he has easily won all three of his Woodbine races this year. Gary Barber’s grey colt is joined by the hype-horse for the Plate, Essex Serpent, who won the Grade 3 Marine Stakes in only his third career start. And Midnight Mascot had some late run when he was third in the Marine.
A number of handicappers believe the Casse horses could take the top three spots. Essex Serpent’s rider Patrick Husbands has won three Plates and could tie the record of four. He rode last year’s Plate winner Paramount Prince. Midnight Mascot lures Kazushi Kimura, who is riding in California but is coming back to Woodbine for the day.
Plate-winning profile
Traditionally, a King’s Plate winner has plenty of foundation from races as a two-year-old or a handful of starts as a three-year-old. Unlike the Kentucky Derby (G1) which is run on the first Saturday in May, the Plate is run later in the year, allowing horsepeople to have more time to prepare their horses for the $1 million race.
As noted on the chart below of the past 18 Plate winners, a speed or stalking style has been rewarded the most and in fact, three of the last four winners all went essentially gate-to-wire.
A good previous effort is not a must, but rarely do horses win the Plate coming off a dull effort, unless there was a significant excuse. The majority of the recent Plate winners finished in the top three in their previous race.
Fillies have won five of the last 13 Plates and simply must be respected. The lone filly in this year’s field, Caitlinhergrtness, had to be supplemented to the race for $25,000.
The Beyer Speed Figure (found in Daily Racing Form) par for the last 10 Plates (minus the highest and lowest Beyer) is 93. Only My Boy Prince has ever raced faster than a 90 Beyer Figure and that was twice in sprints.
The Beyer Figure par of Plate winners from their races BEFORE the Plate is about 85. Six entrants this year – Rafaroo, Essex Serpent, Midnight Mascot, Friendly Ghost, My Boy Prince and Pierre – posted a Beyer Figure of at least 82 in their last starts.
While the Marine and Plate Trial are the logical stepping-stone races for the Plate, if a three-year-old has run well against older horses in a race before the Plate, give them consideration. Plate winner Mighty Heart turned up for his Plate win with a race against older horses.
Plate Winner – Plate Winning Beyer – Previous effort – Winning Running Style
2023 – PARAMOUNT PRINCE / 93 (he posted an 81 when winning the Plate Trial) speed
2022 – MOIRA / 97 (ran a 92 winning Oaks) stalk
2021 – SAFE CONDUCT / 88 (Avoman won Trial with an 83) speed
2020 – MIGHTY HEART / 99 ( Plate Trial went in 89, Clayton) speed
2019 – ONE BAD BOY / 94 (Trial – Pay for Peace – 71) speed
2018 – WONDER GADOT / 95 (Telekinesis won Trial, 88) rally
2017 – HOLY HELENA / 96 ( ran a 94 Oaks) stalk
2016 – SIR DUDLEY DIGGES / 85 (Amis Gizmo won Trial 83) stalk
2015 – SHAMAN GHOST / 87 (had run 86 in Marine) rally
2014 – LEXIE LOU / 91 (ran a 95 in Oaks, Trial – We Miss Artie 85) rally
2013 – MIDNIGHT ARIA / 101 Trial (Dynamic Sky, Trial 88) speed
2012 – STRAIT OF DOVER / 98 (ran a 93 in Marine) speed
2011 – INGLORIOUS / 99 (Check Your Soul, Trial winner 90) rally
2010 – BIG RED MIKE / 92 (ran a 91 in Trial) speed
2009 – EYE OF THE LEOPARD / 92 (ran an 85 in Trial) stalk
2008 – NOT BOURBON / 93 (ran an 88 in Trial) press
2007 – MIKE FOX / 90 (Jiggs Coz, 88 Trial) rally
2006 – EDENWOLD* / 94 (Pipers Thunder, 81 in Trial) speed
(*last 2-year-old champion to win Plate)
How might the race be run?
As you can see from the aforementioned chart, front runners and horses racing close to the pace have done very well in the Plate. Whether it is because of the nature of the main track surface (aiding speed) on race day or the fact that many Plate starters simply don’t like the 1 1/4 mile distance, you want your horse to be close in the early stages.
It seems likely that the sprint winner who is stretching out to a route distance for the first time, Road of the Crowd, will be a front runner with Essex Serpent and Caitlinhergrtness pressing. My Boy Prince, who showed a new dimension in the Trial coming from off the pace after a slow start, won’t be far off. His form is very similar to that of 2008 Plate winner Not Bourbon, who stretched out gradually in distance and won the Plate by a head.
Rafaroo, Friendly Ghost and Pierre also figure to be stalking the pace.
This and that
- Last grey horse to win the Plate – 1999 Woodcarver
- Last two-year-old champion in Canada to win Plate – 2006 Edenwold
- Last maiden to win the Plate – 2000 Scatter the Gold
- Last filly to win the Plate – 2022 Moira
- Least amount of starts in career before Plate win – 1997 Awesome Again (2)
Summing it all up
My Boy Prince and Essex Serpent are the top players in the Plate based their class, speed, race times, etc. It is hard to imagine that one of them will not win. But there is a 20-to-1 shot on the morning line who could be an up-and-comer in the race and that is Pierre, trained by Kevin Attard, who won the 2022 Plate with Moira.
Pierre has been carefully brought along by Attard in select spots and in his last two races he met older horses and was second each time. He moved a bit too soon last time in a grass race but he has come back with a couple of sizzling workout times.
Pierre has a Plate winner’s pedigree, being bred by Ivan Dalos, a Sovereign Award winning breeder. Pierre is a half-brother to Harlan Estate who finished a troubled seventh in the 2021 Plate and just three lengths behind the winner. Harlan Estate went on to be second in the Prince of Wales and fourth in the Breeders’ Stakes.
American rider David Cohen, who has ridden a lot of winners for owners Al and Bill Ulwelling in the last year, is coming up to ride Pierre, who is a son of Tapiture (by Tapit).
I will include the improving Friendly Ghost in my exactors.
$10 win # 8 – Pierre
$2 Exactor Box 3, 6, 7, 8 = $24
Best of luck on your bet365 wagers!
