Handicapping presented by Bet365: Ontario Fashion Stakes

Ontario Thoroughbred racing’s filly-and-mare sprint division has had a number of good stakes winners in 2024 and the Grade 3 Ontario Fashion Stakes on Saturday, October 12 at Woodbine is another competitive dash for handicappers to decipher. As a sidenote, the division’s leader, Play the Music, winner of two graded stakes races this season, is not in the Fashion field.

The 46th Ontario Fashion is race 8 and there will a fairly strong favourite in (#9) TICKER TAPE HOME from the Mark Casse stable. This Ontario-bred four-year-old has won two straight races including the seven-furlong Seaway Stakes (G3) on Aug. 24.

The race is made up of an assortment of turf runners, horses who prefer longer or shorter sprints, and mostly off-the-pace runners. Let’s take a look at a few approaches to picking a winner in the Ontario Fashion:

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Historical

Four of the last 10 runnings of the Fashion have been won by American invaders, including last year’s winner Spun Glass, who ran the best race of her career and won with a last-to-first rush at 27-to-1 for trainer Michael Trombetta.

Trainer Kevin Attard won the 2021 edition with local champion Amalfi Coast and he has two horses entered this year.

The most surprising statistic about the Fashion is that perennial leading training Mark Casse has never won this race. He trains Ticker Taper Home and (#1) STAR CANDY.

Typical of races on the Tapeta in October and November, horses stalking or coming from off the pace tend to have more luck as the track and the weather tend to work against speed horses.

Many of the local recent Fashions winners were cutting back in distance from the Seaway Stakes. Hazelbrook, Amalfi Coast and Painting all raced in the Seaway before they won the Fashion.

How Does the Race Shape Up?

This is one of the most important factors when handicapping a sprint race, as some horses are very good at six furlongs and have natural speed, while others may prefer a bit more ground.

The proven six-furlong horses in this year’s race are Star Candy, Blind Spot, A Game, Owen’s Tour Guide and Swall. Ticker Tape Home has won at six furlongs once, on the grass, as has Love to Shop.

The pace figures to be set by (#5) BEAUTY OF THE SEA, who regularly is on or close to half-mile fractions quicker than 44/45 seconds. This Florida-bred, who usually races at 5 1/2 and 5 furlongs, could be the lone speed in the Fashion and that makes her dangerous.

Those who figure to be closest to Beauty of the Sea early in the race include (#4) OWEN’S TOUR GUIDE and (#7) SWALL, with Ticker Tape Home not far back.

Beauty of the Sea could prove to be very tough to catch, but note that she has not raced since August and has only tried Tapeta once and that was at Gulfstream in 2023.

The closers such as (#1) STAR CANDY and (#6) LOVE TO SHOP have had success in sprints and they will be hoping for a quick pace.

Speed figures

Beauty of the Sea has an edge in her Beyer Figures (in turf sprints) over most of the Fashion field. Owen’s Tour Guide, Love to Shop and Ticker Tape Home compare favourably. And Swall’s last Beyer Figure on the Tapeta, an 85, also puts her on the short list for the exotics.

The bets

My two key horses in wagers will be Beauty of the Sea and Love to Shop. The latter has had just one race since last year, but it was a good speed try in a longer turf race and she should be closing ground in the late stages.

$3 Exactor 5, 6 / 5, 6, 7, 9 = $12.00
$10 Win 6

Good luck with your Bet365 wagers!

Field for the Grade 3 Ontario Fashion (Race 8)
Post – Horse – Jockey – Trainer

1 – Star Candy – Sahin Civaci – Mark Casse 6-1
2 – Blind Spot – Keveh Nicholls – Saffie Joseph, Jr. 12-1
3 – A Game – Fraser Aebly – Josie Carroll 15-1
4 – Owen’s Tour Guide – Jose Campos – Willie Armata 10-1
5 – Beauty of the Sea (S) – Sofia Vives – Joseph Orseno 3-1
6 – Love to Shop – Emma-Jayne Wilson – Kevin Attard 4-1
7 – Swall – Rafael Hernandez – Julia Carey 20-1
8 – Tripolina – Kazushi Kimura – Kevin Attard 20-1
9 – Ticker Tape Home – Patrick Husbands – Mark Casse 5-2
10 – Ro Town – Justin Stein – Kevin Attard 12-1