Handicapping presented by bet365: The Woodbine Mile

Before this weekend and the rich Turf Champions Day at Woodbine, September 14, trainer Charlie Appleby had started horses in 10 Grade 1 races at the Toronto track. He has won eight of them.

Appleby and his client Godolphin will go for a third Woodbine Mile (G1) in succession with (2) NAVAL POWER (GB) who will be odds-on to beat seven rivals in the one-mile turf race, a Win and You’re In event that has been an important stepping-stone for horses going on to the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1).

The 37th edition of the Mile is not unlike the last two runnings with a small group of local horses trying to get past an imposing European. This year’s field actually has two shippers from overseas as (4) BIG ROCK, rated the best turf miler in the world last year, has made the trip to Canada seeking to rediscover his top form.

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The favourite

What makes Naval Power the most likely winner of this year’s Mile? This four-year-old has won six of nine career races from May 2022 to May of this year. He has not raced since he was second by a head in the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs, but he has been in steady training at Saratoga for many weeks. The trainer statistics that are made available in the Daily Racing Form and track program show trainer Appleby has a gawdy 38 percent win rate with horses coming off a 61-180 day layoff. The one-mile distance would seem to suit Naval Power nicely and William Buick has ridden him to many of his wins.

The ‘other’ European

Big Rock won five of nine races in 2023 including the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes over a stellar field. The course at Ascot that October day was quite soft and he relished the going. During the off season, Big Rock was transferred from trainer Christoper Head to Maurizio Guarnieri who has had trouble getting the four-year-old colt back to top form. Big Rock stumbled at the start in his return on May 18 in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes, faded in the Group 1 Queen Anne and then finished fifth in France in the Group 1Prix du Haras de Fresnay. The winner of his last two races was Charyn, considered the top miler in the world right now.

In a recent interview on a podcast hosted by Nick Luck, Guarnieri said that he was a bit concerned about how firm the Woodbine course might be for Big Rock, who prefers a giving course.

Local heroes

Two-time champion from 2022 (5) FILO DI ARIANNA (BRZ) is in the best form of his career with consecutive wins in the Highlander Stakes at six furlongs and the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes at 1 mile. Trainer Mark Casse noted that the eight-year-old gelding was coming off a two-month layoff for the King Edward and may have not been fully cranked.

Casse will also start (6) WIN FOR THE MONEY, who won a turf stakes race at Gulfstream in May and a horse who seems to like middle distance grass races.

And completing a Casse three-pack is the three-year-old (8) MY BOY PRINCE, who was second in the King’s Plate last month. My Boy Prince won the Cup & Saucer Stakes last year on the grass. (7)

NIAGARA SKYLINE comes off a win on the inner turf course and he is five for 13 on the main turf. He’s reaching for the sky in this spot but his good form should be respected. (3) SECRET RESERVE, third behind Filo di Arianna in the King Edward, is a stalking, closing type who will be a longshot.

The sleeper

(1) PLAYMEA TUNE burst onto the racing scene at Woodbine on May 24, winning a maiden race by 11 lengths with a 96 Beyer Figure. He came right back to win an allowance race by 5 1/2 lengths with a 95 Beyer. The Chiefswood Stable homebred, trained by Josie Carroll, tried his first stakes race last time in the Grade 3 Bold Venture and he came charging at 2023 Champion Sprinter Patches O’Houlihan and was second by a neck. His Beyer Figure of 99 is not far off the 102 earned by Naval Power in his most recent start.

Playmea Tune, a four-year-old son of MacLean’s Music – Fifth Overture, is trying the one mile distance and grass for the first time in the Woodbine Mile, two significant hurdles. But the gelding shows all the signs that he can handle both.

He is a half-brother to three grass winners and his second, third and fourth dams were all bred in Ireland or England. There is plenty of stamina on both sides of his pedigree.

If this guy is anywhere above 6-to-1, he is worth a play, at least in the exactor with favoured Naval Power.

$10 Exactor 2-1
$10 Win 1

Good luck with your bet365 wagers!

Last 10 Winners of Woodbine Mile (G1)
Yr Horse Age Jockey Trainer Owner Time

2023 Master of The Seas, 5, William Buick, Charlie Appleby, Godolphin 1:33.79
2022 Modern Games, 3, William Buick, Charlie Appleby, Godolphin 1:32.77
2021 Town Cruise, 6, Daisuke Fukumoto, Brandon Greer, Brandon Greer 1:35.14
2020 Starship Jubilee, 7, Justin Stein, Kevin Attard, Blue Heaven Farm 1:32.06
2019 El Tormenta, 4, Eurico Rosa da Silva, Gail Cox, Sam-Son Farm 1:32.60
2018 Oscar Performance, 4, José L. Ortiz, Brian A. Lynch, Amerman Racing LLC 1:33.12
2017 World Approval, 5, John R. Velazquez, Mark Casse, Live Oak Plantation 1:33.05
2016 Tepin, 5, Julien Leparoux, Mark Casse, Robert Masterson 1:34.13
2015 Mondialiste (IRE), 5, Feargal Lynch, David O’Meara, Sandra & Geoff Turnbull 1:36.66
2014 Trade Storm (GB), 6, Jamie Spencer, David Simcock, Qatar Racing 1:36.87