Handicapping presented by bet365: Santa Anita Derby

By the time darkness falls on Saturday, April 6, the field will be just about set for the 150th Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 4.

The last of the three rich stepping-stone races before the Derby, the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby, will go to post at about 7:45 p.m. Eastern following Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial (G2) and Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes (G1). Each race offers 100 Derby points to the winner.

Unlike the Wood and Blue Grass, the Santa Anita Derby does not offer much intrigue with respect to the Kentucky Derby since two of the eight starters, favourite IMAGINATION and WYNSTOCK, are trained by Bob Baffert and thus not eligible to collect Derby points or compete in the Derby.

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Ah, but we can still handicap the eight-horse field and place a winning bet.

Speed Rules

Typically, three-year-olds with impeccable pedigrees, big speed and a lot of stamina have powered to victory in the 1 1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby. Ten winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby including three in the last 12 years. Oh, and Baffert has won nine Santa Anita Derbies.

Speed horses do well on the slick Santa Anita surface but also, the field size for the race tends to be on the small side, giving an edge to front-runners who can dictate race terms.

Imagination, who is ridden by world famous jockey Frankie Dettori, has been first or second in all five of his career races and he passed his first stakes test on March 3 when he won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) by a head over another Baffert-trainee, Wine Me Up, after setting and pressing the pace throughout the 1 1/16 miles. His Beyer Figure of 96 is easily the highest of any of his rivals on Saturday.

A $1.05 million yearling purchase, Imagination is by the world’s leading stallion, Into Mischief.

Too Much Speed?

To this point in their young careers, some of these three-year-olds in the Santa Anita Derby have found a preferred way to run and that is on or close to the pace. Imagination has been in front or within a length of the lead at the first call of all of his races and his stablemate Wynstock (#5) won the Los Alamitos Futurity in December in gate-to-wire fashion.

Longshot E J Won the Cup (#8) is very speedy, having shown front-running speed at six furlongs and in winning his last two starts including the Turf Paradise Derby. And even the long-striding Tapalo (#2) has been very close to fast fractions in his five career races.

At nine furlongs, a distance only one Santa Anita Derby entrant has tested, it seems reasonable to seek out a horse who has shown the ability to lay just off the pace and do well.

That horse is STRONGHOLD (#3) who is 5-to-2 in the morning line odds and is trained by Phil d’Amato for owners/breeders Eric and Sharon Waller. Stronghold has won two of his five races and was second in the other three starts. He made his three-year-old debut at Sunland Park in New Mexico and won the Sunland Derby (G3), admittedly close to the pace but as the heavy favourite.

But the son of top stallion Ghostzapper has shown the ability to perform well from off the pace and certainly his pedigree is geared towards long distances.

Stronghold’s jockey Antonio Fresu has a 22 percent win rate when riding horses for trainer D’Amato. The colt’s trainer also has an impressive 16 percent win rate in graded stakes races, statistics from the last two years.

Canada’s Kimura at 10-to-1

If you are looking for a likely stretch-runner at nice odds in the Santa Anita Derby, try Tessuto (#6) who will be ridden by Woodbine’s three-time leading rider Kazushi Kimura. Kimura will have this lightly-raced colt, who just won his maiden on Feb. 25 in his first attempt at a route distance, several lengths off the favourites with a chance to close some ground for a place in the exotic wagers.

$5 Exacta: 3, 6/ 3, 6, 4 – $20.00

Good luck with your bet365 wagers!

SANTA ANITA DERBY FIELD
1 1/8 miles, Race 10, April 6, post time 7:45 p.m. EST

1 Curlin’s Kaos—Diego Herrera—124 – 20-1
2 Tapalo—Umberto Rispoli—124 – 5-1
3 Stronghold—Antonio Fresu—124 – 5-2
4 Imagination—Frankie Dettori—124 – 8-5
5 Wynstock—Juan Hernandez—124 – 8-1
6 Tessuto—Kazushi Kimura—124 – 10-1
7 Mc Vay—Hector Berrios—124 – 5-1
8 E J Won the Cup—Mike Smith—124 – 15-1