Handicapping with bet365: The Valedictory Stakes

The emphasis will be on stamina in the 70th Valedictory Stakes (G3) on Saturday at Woodbine, the longest main track stakes race of the season at 1 1/2 miles.

This is always a fun race that mixes some of the year’s top handicap horses with some up-and-comers who have been entered with an eye on the long distance.

Let’s take a look at the last six editions of the Valedictory and what the profile of each winner was coming into the race:

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2023 – At 15-to-1, Conglomerate was a surprise winner but then again, he was trained by leading conditioner Mark Casse. Conglomerate was coming off a win at 1 1/16 miles for $50,000 claiming on the grass and he had shown a liking for long distances on the Tapeta.

2022 – Wentru (trained by Martin Drexler) was sent off at 42-to-1 despite having won three straight wins for claiming $25,000-$32,000 including a victory on the pace at 1 3/8 miles on the grass. He led all the way the Valedictory, but was joined by the year’s top handicap horse, Who’s the Star (Casse), who was also riding a winning streak and had to settle for a dead heat for the win.

2021 – Sir Winston (Casse) won the 2019 Belmont Stakes and two years later found himself at Woodbine trying to get back in form. He had two good efforts in a pair of graded stakes races at shorter distances and then relished the Valedictory distance and got the win.

(Note: The Valedictory was shortened from 1 3/4 miles to 1 1/2 miles in 2021.)

2019 – Pumpkin Rumble (Kevin Attard), a fan favourite, won his second straight Valedictory after trying the Grade 1 Canadian International on turf in his previous race.

2018 – Pumpkin Rumble was riding a two-race winning streak and he had been fifth in the previous year’s Valedictory.

2017 – Leavem in Malibu (Casse) was coming in off a win and was improving rapidly in recent races. He led all the way to win the Valedictory.

2016 – Bangkok (Phil Gracey) was 17-to-1 when he rallied in time to win his first stakes race in the Valedictory. He had two close-up efforts in marathon races on the main track coming into his big win.

Casse has won four of the last nine Valedictory Stakes and six in total and he has two entered in this year’s race including the 3-to-1 morning line favourite GET SMOKIN (#4).

Several of those recent winners were coming off wins and were rolling along in good form. Class is also a consideration in graded stakes races, but when it comes to the 1 1/2 mile Valedictory, you can make strong cases for long distance lovers who are in good form.

Running Style

Like a lot of races at extended distances, it is handy for a horse to have some natural speed. It is a myth that horses who like to fall far back in their races are certain winners the longer distance they travel. Wentru and Leavem in Malibu led all the way while the others were within five or six lengths halfway through the marathon.

This year’s field has at least one distinct front-runner, Get Smokin, who is the class of the field with $2 million in earnings but just one other try on Tapeta and he finished fourth in Woodbine’s Eclipse Stakes in June.

Any horse who tries to go with Get Smokin early is in for a rough ride. Those include Stone Age (#6) and Runaway Charlie (#10).

Get Smokin did win once at 1 1/2 miles and that came on the turf last year.

Stalkers who figure to have a good trip in this year’s Valedictory including CLASSIC MO TOWN (#1), DANCIN IN DA’NILE (#7), LOOSE WIRE (#8) and STANLEY HOUSE (#11).

Age

It could be an anomaly, but three-year-olds do not have a good record in the Valedictory and there is a good one in this year’s field. ROSCAR (#5) won the 1 1/2 mile Breeders’ Stakes this year on the turf and he handles the main track. But it has been almost 40 years since a three-year-old has won the Valedictory (Bodmin Moor, 1987).

Previous Valedictory experience

ENGLISH CONQUEROR (#3) has tried this race three other times and was third in 2022. This seven-year-old has been unlucky in his career not to have won a stakes race. COLLECTIVE FORCE (#9) has also raced in the Valedictory on three other occasions with third, fifth and second-place finishes.

Summing it up

Two horses coming off wins who fit the up-and-comer profile are interesting contenders. Coincidentally, these are also related as uncle and nephew!

DANCIN IN DA NILE, at one time a Queen’s Plate contender, is very much a long distance specialist and he comes off the best performance of his career on Nov. 2 when winning a 1 3/8 mile turf race. He has won on the main track and at 10-to-1 he is a value play.

Dancin in Da’nile’s dam, Dance Again, is a sister to LOOSE WIRE, who has won three of four career races for trainer Kevin Attard. This will be Loose Wire’s third start of the year and he has red-hot jock Rafael Hernandez on board.