#6, a filly first-time starter in race 5 at Woodbine tomorrow, leaves no doubt about her intentions. “I Love to Win” is her name. Of course, that makes her a hunch play if there ever was one. Perhaps giving the hunch even more strength is the fact that exactly 20 years ago this month, the only other horse to race under that exact name won her maiden race at Hollywood Park. The morning line on I Love to Win is 6-1 and her connections are impeccable: Sahin Civaci (26 per cent wins) is riding and William Therrenos (23 per cent) is the trainer.
All of which brings up the subject of hunch plays — for which there are no “rules ”— but for which most horseplayers have some pleasant memory. My favourite goes back eons to my teen years riding a crowded bus to Assiniboia Downs, looking out the front window and seeing a car with the eye-catching licence plate: 1P1. Of course, I bet $4 in the first race on post position #1. The horse’s odds were 46-1. #1 went to the lead and the horse chasing him stumbled and fell, wiping out the rest of the field. So, yes, that’s a hunch play memory I’ll take to my grave.
So will you add her to the fourth leg of the pick-5 (that starts in race 2) and/or the first leg of the Power Pick 6? Will she live up to her name? Hey, according to DRF debut reports, back in 2022 her daddy, Signature Red, had three debut winners out of eight starters. That’s 38 per cent. Huge! And she was 12th fastest out of 115 horses who worked out on Wednesday.
Hunch or no hunch, she is probably one of many possibilities in the 10-horse field filled with first-time starters or horses with a single start. And what about the other legs of the early pick-5?
- Race 2, non-winners two lifetime: We look first at a horse that could get away on the field (#5). Then longshot #6 at 15-1 has the “bounce” factor going for her, having broken her maiden two races back by three lengths. But, as you know, never be surprised at what happens in the chaotic nw2L condition.
- Race 3, maiden: The even-numbered horses in this nine-horse field of 2-year-olds seem to have an experience or workout edge. Or, in the case of 20-1 #2, left slowly in her debut.
- Race 4, maiden: My best bet is in this race because of the rule of a horse showing speed in a route race, cutting back to a sprint. That horse is #6 Encourageachother. Will be surprised if she loses. Also, we can apply the maiden “added up” rule, adding where the horse finished last time with the position at the first call of its previous race. #1,8,9 and 10 have the lowest added-up numbers. Wheel them under #6 in your superfecta or triactor plays.
- Race 5, maiden: See #6 hunch play at the top but you may wish to wheel “all” 10 as well on a ticket.
- Race 6, maiden race at 7-furlongs: Was hoping for a 7-furlong highest-speed number to be a standout but a bunch of horses have 7-furlong speed numbers in the 70s. The highest with 77 Equibase speed is #7 Endearing at 8-1. #6 seems to have been a specialist at this distance in England. #2 is your underneath horse in triactors and supers because she has three thirds out of six starts at this specialist distance. #11 has the lowest added-up numbers of four in this maiden race and, along with #3 and #7, is a Mark Casse trainee. Casse’s win rate is 24 per cent.
Here’s a 20-cent pick-5 wheel that has a shot at a big payoff:
5/2,4,6,8/6/all10/2,3,6,7,11. Cost is 1 x 4 x 1 x 10 x 5 = 200 divided by 5 = $40.
Keying the hunch horse in race 5 would bring the cost down to $4.
~ by Ivan Bigg
