So rules didn’t pick last Saturday’s early pick-4 at Woodbine (for a loss of $19.20) but if you played a $1 triactor box of the four horses in the last leg — race 7 — at a cost of $24, you would have collected $220 (see that column here). The reason the triactor paid so much is that one of the low added-up numbers in the maiden race went off at 25-1 and finished second. That’s why rules out-perform opinions; you might not “like” a horse but you have to take the horse because of the rule.
Also, in the Alywow Stakes, the in-the-money rule picked the $4.30 winner.
Speaking of which, the last five races on Saturday’s Woodbine card are stakes races and the most important rule is: What horse(s) have the best in-the-money record? Using that rule and a couple of others, the cost of a 20-cent pick-5 on those five races is $28.80:
- Race 6, the Selene Stakes: #1;3,6,7 have the best in-the-money record. But note, too, that a supplemental fee was paid to enter these four horses: #3,4,5,6. But not that much should be made of the extra fees since most of the fee would be recovered even if the horse finished seventh and last.
- Race 7, the Highlander Stakes: #6 and 9 have the best in-the-money record and note that #9, Witty, is the day’s best bet of DRF trackman Ron Gierkink. Also note that #4 is cutting back to a sprint race after showing early speed in a turf route race.
- Race 8, the Dominion Day Stakes: #6 Paramount Prince, winner of the King’s Plate, has an in-the-money record of 9 out of 10. The four-year-old gelding was beaten by two other horses in his previous race in which he hadn’t shown his customary early pace. This time he should be on the lead and is a strong threat to go all the way. (Note that #7 at 12-1 was supplemented into the race.)
- Race 9, the Marine Stakes: #1,6,7 have the best in-the-money record. I’d add #2 because the colt posted a strong 107 pace figure in winning his previous race.
- Race 10, the Nassau Stakes: #6 and 9 have the best closing fractions in turf route races two races ago. Also, #7 Fev Rover comes out of a grade 1 stakes race, classier than any other horse, and #1 Safteen at 20-1 was supplemented into the race.
So the 20-cent pick-5 ticket costing $28.80 — with fingers crossed for Paramount Prince to win leg 3 — would be 1,3,6,7/4,6,9/6/1,2,6,7/6,7,9. You may feel that the supplemented horses deserve extra consideration. Maybe, as a minimum, add the longshot supplemented horses into the third or fourth positions in your superfectas.
~ by Ivan Bigg
