So let’s see if we can knock off a pick-5 at Woodbine tomorrow afternoon before Breeders’ Cup races kick off at Del Mar.
- Race 2, starter optional claiming turf route: I love turf routes because the rules simply dictate calculating how quickly each horse has been able to close ground in previous races from the 6-furlong point in the race to the end of the race. Two horses are best: #6 Umneyaat (3-1) and #1 Gabby Squared (10-1). Times in this race are very slow but, then again, this is a $10,000 claimer.
- Race 3, $40,000 optional claimer: This is the often-chaotic non-winners of two races condition, but all these horses are recent-starting two-year-olds, so no horses have been stranded in this condition seemingly forever. #1 Ada May (5-2) has early pace and may take it all the way, but #3 and #4 will be hoping to catch up late.
- Race 4, $25,000 maiden optional claiming for two-year-olds: Ah yes, the babies. Some big payoffs have emerged from this condition, but there are two class-droppers from $40,000 that should be the main contenders (2 & 3). Add #5 Her Obsession (8-1), a first-time starter favoured by DRF pro-pick specialists Ron Gierkink and Pete Shewchuk.
- Race 5, a maiden allowance for two-year-olds: We’re going to take a shot here with a first-time starter, #4 Beach Cricket (5-2) for two reasons: his sire has a 19 per cent win rate with his debuting progeny and Rafael Hernandez is aboard. His presence means the filly is live. If you wish to expand your ticket cost by adding 5,6,7,8, it’s your choice — and money!
- Race 6, $40,000 maiden optional claimer for two-year-olds: We automatically take horses that are dropping from maiden allowance ranks (1,2,7) and add #4 who had low added-up numbers in the $40K condition and #11 (8-1) who is going up off a claim at $25K. She showed speed last time and, off the claim, may take her speed the whole trip.
So the suggested budget 20-cent pick-5 wheel is: 1,6/1,3,4/2,3,5/4/1,2,4,7,11 (2 x 3 x 3 x 1 x 5 = 90 divided by 5 = $18). Think about pick-3s, too, and superfectas — maybe a five-horse box in race 6!
LAST WEEK
Once again, a key in the suggested pick-5 bet was scratched so that bet was scrubbed. The suggested superfecta wheel in race 3, however, won. It cost $24 (wheeling #7 first and second and #4 third and fourth) and 7-A-A-4 came in and paid $61.70. If big favourite #7 had finished second, you can imagine how much bigger the payoff would have been and that’s why it was a strong play.
~ by Ivan Bigg
